MUHAMMAD MA'RUF, Ph.D
Director Global Thinkers Institute (GTI), Observer, Researcher on Geo-Philosophy, Geostrategy, Intelligence and Defense.
GTI-Is it true that the Yemeni- Houthis want to destroy the world's prosperity and economy? Don't the poor Yemeni- Houthi people need welfare? Aren't these gloved Arabs being forced to stop the Israeli-US genocide in Gaza because of the lack of UN resolutions? Aren't these “bad guys” actually representing the international community? Aren't these traditional people actualizing the voice of world democracy which wants a ceasefire and humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza?
This oppressed Yemeni Arab mentality is truly Arab. This entity is not recognized as a state by the UN authorities, although it de facto controls vast areas of Yemen. It has been attacked by the Saudi Arabian coalition for 9 years. But amazingly, this entity seems to represent the countries and people of the Arab League who are barren against the Israeli genocide in Gaza.
They tried hard to stop the Israeli-US genocide in Gaza with various tactics. Attacking Israel's Port of Eilat with drones and missiles. Some escaped, others were intercepted by US warships. The Yemeni Houthis did not give up, changing tactics to take over and destroy cargo ships that were only bound for Israel. This strategy aims to disrupt Israel's economy so that Netanyahu-Biden will stop the genocide in Gaza.
The Yemeni Houthis have no intention of targeting a world economic recession. But a world economic recession could occur if there was a canal war in the Red Sea like the Suez War in 1956. On October 29, 1956, the combined armies of Israel, Britain and France won against Egypt. -Yemeni-Houthi ahead of Christmas 2023 and New Year 2024 are ready to secure the “Bab Al Mandab canal” against the 10 US coalition countries.
Pirate Narrative
The poor, innocent, pure and brave intentions of the Yemeni people are now being transformed into pirate steps that disrupt and oppose the navigation and prosperity of world trade.
This bold move by the Houthis was deemed illegal and reckless by the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd J. Austin III. “I spoke with Minister SebLecornu yesterday to discuss the ongoing threat posed by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. France and the United States are working together to address these reckless and illegal attacks and ensure the safety of seafarers and global shipping.”
A world economic recession will actually occur, the door has now been opened by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin who announced "Operation Prosperity Guardian" on December 18 to fight and eliminate the Houthis. Forming a multi-national coalition with the reason "to uphold the basic principle of freedom of navigation" in the Red Sea by Task Force 153. Its operational area includes the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden.
Air Force Major General Pat Ryder at a Pentagon press conference said.
“It's important to understand that the Houthis are not just attacking one country, they are actually attacking the international community,” Ryder said. “They attack the economic well-being and prosperity of countries around the world. So they actually became bandits along the international highway, namely the Red Sea.”
The US repeatedly requested direct communications with the Republic of Yemen in Sana'a, but was rejected. Yemen will be compensated for the opening of Sana Airport and Port. It does not rule out the possibility of expanding US-Nato militarization efforts due to further economic corridor war considerations - operations could be expanded from the Mediterranean to the Suez Canal, Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf.
So far, Washington seems to prefer betting on the possibility of a global recession rather than a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. The economic recession actually contributed to accelerating widespread economic collapse in Western European countries, which meant a faster actualization of the world multipolarity system.
The announced US alliance consists of Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain against the Houthis-Yemen.
Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former head of U.S. Central Command, said the Biden administration needs to respond more forcefully before we reach that point.
“Sometimes you have to throw,” McKenzie said in an interview with Politico. “You can't fish forever, because eventually the law of averages will turn against you, and you'll have significant escalation on the boat, and then you'll be forced to do even more significant things. response rate.”
In contrast to Scott Ritter, this critical US army veteran gave a firm statement, the US alliance will not win against the Houthis, just as Israel will not be able to eliminate Hamas. The Houthis do not need balanced defense equipment, have aircraft carriers, various warships, F-35 class aircraft, or have various types of bombs like those sent by the US to Israel to genocide Gaza babies, small children and women.
The narrow area of the Red Sea is more or less the same as the Persian Gulf. The Red Sea is located between North Africa, East Africa and West Asia. Average depth 490 m, length 2,250 KM, sea surface area 438,000 km. Sea water channels in the Indian Ocean. Connected to the sea is in the south, through the Bab el Mandeb strait and the Gulf of Aden. To the north lie the Sinai Peninsula, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Gulf of Suez. Surrounded by Basin countries; Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Israel, and Jordan.
Houthis missiles and drones do not need to be launched from standard war ships, but from the edge of the sea or land safety lines. Only if a combination is necessary, small ships can attack Nato ships with guided missiles and capture them at the same time.
The idea of causing losses to the US and Nato navies in the Red Sea, the simulation is the same as in the Persian Gulf which is demonstrated in every exercise by Iran's joint forces, which has demonstrated the ability to sink various warships and aircraft carriers that are moving slowly anywhere. Both with precision missiles, naval ballistic missiles, mines and drones.
The more Nato warships approach Yemen's waterfront, the more opportunities the Houthis have to shoot them. Even if Nato is interested in taking control of Yemen with a land attack, thousands of Houthis-Yemeni troops are already waiting on the seashore. Yemeni Houtis are waiting for foreign US-European warships to push into Bab-el-Mandeb. A Gate of Mourning or Gate of Tears, located in the strait between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula, Djibouti, and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa. The location connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and also to India,
Israel's Economic Impact
The security situation in the Red Sea has indeed become difficult after the Houthis began attacking all cargo ships bound for Israel in response to Israel's genocidal actions against Gaza residents. The short and long term impact on Israel's economy is of course immediate. Once again the Yemeni Houthis do not want to target a world recession as per the Pentagon's narrative. The goal is clear, to force Israel to stop the genocide in Gaza. This bold step by the Houthi-Yemenis indirectly represents the aspirations of the majority of UN members who agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Israeli port of Eilat has lost about 85% of its revenue due to Houthi attacks, the Port director said. Yoram Sebba, President of the Israeli Chamber of Delivery, expressed himself confused by Ansarullah's “complicated” tactics and “undisclosed” criteria that have given rise to “total uncertainty”.
Around 70% to 90% of Israel's imports come from the sea using cargo ships, 40% of these ships go via the Red Sea. Half of Israel's imports go through the Red Sea. Israel is building the Haifa international port to re-export gas and oil to Europe. The UAE and China who want to invest, including the Port of Eilat, will think again.
This area is always hot. In 2006, Hezbollah was at war alone, in 2014, 2021, Gaza was alone, but now, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen are against Israel. In the short and long term it will have an effect on the Israeli economy, plus Israel's existence.
World Economic Impact
Many experts have predicted the global economic impact due to the possibility of a Red Sea canal war between NATO vs Houthi-Yemen. But it must be clearly distinguished between the ongoing economic impact of Israel and the potential world recession that has not yet occurred. The US coalition's move against the Houtis-Yemenis actually wants to save Israel's economy and prolong the period of genocide in Gaza. Cargo ships that are not directly involved in the Gaza genocide will not be targeted. However, if the US coalition really genocides the Yemeni people, it is possible that Bab al-Mandeb will be closed with sea mines.
Several world shipping companies have indeed reacted to avoid the Red Sea. Among them, Hapag-Lilyod (Denmark), Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM (French company), Maersk (Denmark), BP (England).
Taiwanese shipping giant Yang-Ming Marine Transport Corporation initially planned to reroute Israel-bound cargo to the port of Ashdod. Then they stopped any shipments to any Israeli destination.
About 12% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, including 30% of global container traffic and $1 trillion worth of goods annually. Bab el-Mandeb is 29 km (18 miles) wide and at its narrowest point is an important route for international trade, 10% of the world's crude oil flows through it – meaning any disruption would be a global economic problem. Due to security problems in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area, the Suez Canal, one of the largest transportation routes in the world, will automatically suffer.
The Red Sea turning red will also cause the global energy crisis to get worse. At least four million barrels of oil and 12% of total global seaborne trade to the West transit Bab al-Mandeb every day.
Shipping difficulties in the Red Sea will especially affect Egypt's economy. The week-long blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 cost the world $10 billion. This time, the amount of damage could be much greater. Jordan's economy is also suffering from the growing crisis. Cargo handling at the port of Aqaba decreased 16% last month. The number of ships arriving at the port of Aqaba, which is Jordan's only outlet to the sea, decreased by 14%.
The economies of EU countries are already experiencing a serious decline. The US national debt reached more than $33 trillion, and the era of the US dollar's reserve currency status in global trade was coming to an end. A 12% drop in global trade overnight would almost certainly cause these countries to experience an economic depression equivalent to the great depression that occurred nearly 100 years ago. Economic war and military war are two sides of the same coin
So far, on the one hand, Yemen actually controls the Red Sea. The UAE-Saudi-Jordan tandem, however, has an alternative – a cargo land corridor built from Jebel Ali port on the Persian Gulf across Saudi Arabia to Jordan and then Israel.
This corridor uses logistics technology from Trucknet: the practice is truck-based land connectivity, which reduces transport times from 14 days via the Red Sea to a maximum of 4 days travel, 300 trucks a day, every day. Jordan is of course involved, operating trans-shipments from the UAE and Saudi Arabia. However, this corridor was not and has not been officially announced, because informing it means direct participation in the genocide against the people of Gaza.