By Muhammad Ma’ruf

GTI - Observing the developments in US-Israel diplomacy and military aggression against Iran since February 28, it seems not far from Prof. Jiang's prediction. China and Russia will continue to strive for peace and an end to the war. Meanwhile, the US and Israel are using sham diplomatic tactics to continue a war that is not supported by the US people and NATO members.

Neither Russia nor China, despite their close ties to Iran, have so far announced direct engagement with Iran against the US, Israel, or the Gulf states. However, behind-the-scenes aid continues, with no precise acceptance or rejection, regardless of the type and weight of the aid.

Officially, Iran has neither requested nor rejected military assistance. For Iran, there is no pressing need, as it seeks to build national pride and wants locally produced defense equipment, proven on the battlefield, capable of defeating the technological superiority of its arch-enemy, the US and Israel.

Iran needs Russia and China more economically and diplomatically than militarily. To some extent, even the closeness of the US and Israel, as the aggressors, is more existential than the closeness of Russia and China to Iran.

Almayadeen TV once broadcast that the future of this war imposed on Iran surpasses what Russia and China predicted. This war will change not only the economy and security of the Middle East, but also the security and economic future of the BRICS members.

The positions of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran, all BRICS members, are involved in the fighting. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) hosted the US attack on Iran, while simultaneously funding the US-Israel war against Iran. This was acknowledged by Trump himself, without denial by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The UAE was accused of direct involvement in the Bandar Abas attack on May 8. Iran's Tasnim News Agency highlighted clear indications of hostile involvement by the UAE, describing the UAE government as acting as a proxy and mere tool in the hands of the Zionist regime.

"Signs of the Emirati treasonous action against the Bahman Qeshm port have been observed," Tasnim reported, adding that if confirmed, "the UAE will pay a heavy price for its hostile actions."

What Russia and China may have been slow to understand is that the US-Israeli military aggression against Iran is directly linked to the implementation of Greater Israel and colonization (the Monroe Doctrine). Early indications of this were seen when the Russian-flagged tankers Marinera and Motor Tanker Sophia were hijacked by the US and UK without a corresponding response from Russia.

Recent conflicts in Latin America (the Maduro kidnapping, the Cuban power outage), Africa (Mali, Somaliland), the Ukrainian provocation, the Arctic (the annexation of Greenland), and Taiwan are also directly linked to the US-Israeli military aggression against Iran. This connection has become even more apparent since Iran has closed and reopened the Hormuz, the lifeblood of 20% of global trade, to counterbalance and regulate the uncontrolled US-Israeli military aggression.

The Assassination of Competitors of Gas and Oil Exporters and Importers

The US waged war in Ukraine and cut off the Nord Stream pipeline to cut off Russian gas to Europe (Germany). The US and Israel also attacked Iran to stop Iranian oil exports to China, etc. The US did not build infrastructure to expand its gas and oil markets, but instead killed its competitors.

Other goals, such as regime change and halting Iran's nuclear weapons program, were presented as legitimate, but failed. Iran's counterattack and complete control of the Strait of Hormuz actually provided opportunities for Iran to grow economically and politically.

Controlling 20% ​​of trade in the Strait of Hormuz benefited not only Iran but also the BRICS economic program. The local currency and the Yuan, which replaced the USD, forced countries using the Strait of Hormuz to adapt to a new, non-USD-based financial system. The dedollarization project of BRICS members was accelerated by Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the US's true motives were clear: the US-Israel-Gulf States military aggression against Iran aimed to thwart the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project between Russia, Iran, and India.It blocks China's economy in the Middle East, as China imports 90% of its oil from Iran, approximately 1.4 million barrels per day (mbd).

The US under Trump feels successful in implementing the Monroe Doctrine, kidnapping Maduro, and pressuring Cuba and other Latin American countries to stem Chinese economic expansion in Latin America and Africa.

After Iran retaliated by destroying US military bases in the Gulf States and closing the Strait of Hormuz, the position of the US, Israel, and the Gulf States weakened economically and militarily. However, Russia benefited from the lifting of US sanctions on Russia and the rise in gas prices, reaching around US$60 per barrel. However, China, as an importer, can still purchase 90% of its oil needs from Iran in yuan.

Arctic Security

Iran's retaliation against US military bases in the Gulf states and Israel successfully destroyed 40-50% of NATO's forces. Strategically and tactically, this benefited Russia. The availability of NATO weapons systems to support the war in Ukraine was negated. NATO members' refusal to act aggressively against Iran and attack the Iranian Navy in the Strait of Hormuz resulted in a decline in European Union support for the Ukrainian war project.

The US plan to purchase or occupy Greenland also strengthened Russia's strategic position. Denmark and Canada's rejection of the US annexation plan clearly impacted Iceland, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.

Currently, when US-NATO weapons systems in the Middle East cannot protect their own military bases, Arctic countries are certainly more conditioned to accept Russia and China militarily, politically, and economically. US integrity and capabilities in the Arctic have declined sharply. An Iranian military official even offered to protect Greenland from US threats.

Environmental advocacy, research projects, natural resource extraction, and the preservation of local communities will open new opportunities for Russia-China integration with Arctic states, including supporting the Northern Route project.

The US's deliberate military tensions in the Arctic have been significantly reduced, to some extent, by Iran's successful military offensive against NATO military bases in the Middle East and Israel. "The US is indeed a superpower, but so is Iran," said Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei on May 5.