BY; MUHAMMAD MA'RUF, Ph.D
Director-Global Thinkers Institute (GTI), Observer, Researcher on Geo-Philosophy, Geostrategy, Intelligence and Defense.
This operation was named Storm/Flood Al-Aqsa. The operation launched by Hamas freedom fighters shook the world. The level of shock shocked Gaza's own people. Especially the Israelis who experienced it. While Israelis are lulled in enjoying holidays commemorating the 50th anniversary of the victory in the Yom Kippur war since 1973. At the same time as the sacred day of the Kibbutz, Israeli-Jewish people enjoy and give thanks, rejoicing in the paradise of agricultural communities, living in "Settlements" with the best level of security in the world .
They were so fierce, they never imagined that the landowners who lived next to the wall, whom they considered animals and stupid, would be able to break through and ask for their homeland to be returned through sophisticated military operations. Former CIA director John Brennan acknowledged it was a “sophisticated, multidementional, well planning, well coordinated, and well implemented” operation. Efrat Henigson, a former IDF intelligence officer who worked for 25 years, suspects the operation was carried out by the Deep State. Because a cat moving along the border fence will trigger all the forces.
The Hamas "Elite Troops" are the second and third generation of refugees, their parents were forcibly expelled since 1948. Now these young refugees have decided to become patriots of Hamas-Palestine-under the banner of the resistance front, refusing to forget, awakening the world in an elegant way. Implementing with full dedication the 1974 General Assembly inalienable rights of the Palestinian people to self-determination, national independence, sovereignty, and to return.
Demonstrate and become like the Elite Commando Units of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Delta Force USA, and Russian Spetsnaz without a UN Security Council mandate.
The myth of the world's best military and intelligence superpower.
Israel has indeed trained its country to be superior and invincible with one of the best intelligence and deterrence capabilities in the world. But in fact, Hamas troops managed to enter Israeli territory. The territory with the world's best big data security system and layered 8200 unit. The world is shocked to believe it or not. In fact, they were so disbelieving that the Hamas operation was considered part of a "false flag" operation, a conspiracy between the USA and Israel to carry out a ground operation to eliminate Hamas in Gaza. Because Hamas was created by the USA and Israel to compete with Arafat and the PLO, while its term has expired. Israel's border gates were deliberately left open, is that true?.
The late Buya Ahmad Syafi'i Ma'arif was one of the Indonesian Muslim intellectuals who believed in Israel's creation of Hamas. Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova, also wondered why the USA did not share intelligence with its close friend Israel regarding Hamas' attack plans. But actively telling the world that Russia will attack Ukraine. Now Russia is monitoring the Israel-Hamas turmoil, because some mercenaries from 35 European countries and including Israel have begun to move from the Ukrainian front to Israel to fight Hamas in preparation for urban war.
This article will analyze the extent to which the facts on the ground reflect the reality that Hamas actually won the military and intelligence war against Israel at the start of the operation. Meanwhile, Israel's weaknesses are difficult to repair. Even some experts don't believe it can be repaired.
Operation Al-Aqsa Storm began six days ago. Saturday, October 7, 2023, Hamas troops at exactly 6:30 am Gaza time succeeded in breaking through the border into the Israeli occupied territory, both land, sea, air and even underground. More or less simultaneously entering 7 border points between Gaza and Israel along 99.2 KM, calculated from Check Point Kerem Shalom to Check Point Erez. From south to north next to the barrier-free border wall, entering Israeli territory, it takes 1 hour 25 minutes by car.
Meanwhile, border barriers are made of high concrete, electric wires, cameras, automatic guns with AI sensors connected to Big Data using the best military satellite imagery. Plus human intelligence human resource assets in Gaza. All people using cellphones enter and leave Gaza via the Rafah border and all border checkpoints are monitored automatically. Even satellite imagery every 10 minutes sends images to Israel's big data supercomputer, everything is detected, analyzed and comes to a solution automatically.
The movement of one cat from Gaza will be shot when it approaches the Israeli fence, said Efrat Henigson. One of the former IDF members. Beside the fence leads to Gaza, an open area of desert. The distance from the Gaza border to the Israeli border is on average approximately 1-5 km, with desert contours.
In short, Israel, the owner of intelligence superiority, has the best deterrence in the world and its capabilities are being questioned by military-intelligence experts from Israel and the USA itself
On the first and second days, the Israeli media and the IDF were busy discussing the level of shock and armed contact in the Israeli occupied territories. These include Yated, Sufa, Magen, Urim, Ofakim, Kissufim, Re'im, Nahal Oz, Kfar Aza, Sderot, Erez Crossing, Yad Mordec, and Zikim.
Netanyahu was six hours late declaring the country at war. Then hurriedly mobilized troops from 10,000 to the fourth day of 350,000, including reserve troops. Since days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Israel has only had one mainstay strategy, exploiting, agitating, expanding, branding throughout the world, namely "Hamas terrorists" through the attack on the Kibbutz Be'eri dance party, etc. and actively bombing Gaza with pretext for eliminating Hamas.
But even though many Gaza buildings were destroyed and many Gaza residents died, from a military and civil political perspective, the advantage is on the side of Hamas over Israel for the long term to come.
1. Sharpening Israel's internal friction
With the success of Hamas' military operations into the Israeli-occupied territory, Israel's project of locking up 2.5 million Gaza residents, land, sea and air for 16 years, was broken. The failure of the sophisticated prison security system project without a roof in Gaza will add to friction between the Israeli government and people. The most sophisticated 16-year Gaza blockade project has now collapsed.
2. Urban War
The success in breaking the Gaza-Israel border forced Israel to face urban war. Israel, at least since the six-day war (1967), the Yon Kipur war (1973), has had no experience of urban warfare within its own territory. So, as Netanyahu himself admitted, the war would take a long time, because it cleared Hamas troops who continued to enter the settlement, who were united with settlers for six hours, spread across 22 points. The official number from a Hamas spokesman, 2000 entered Israeli territory, 140,000 in Gaza. There could be more facts on the ground, because within a period of 6 hours, it took no more than two hours to Askelon. Islamic Jihad has also entered and controlled one of the settlers on the West Bank. Scott Ritter, a former US marine intelligence officer, predicts that the IDF will lose, because IDF personnel are unprepared and untrained to face urban warfare scenarios.
3. Network disconnected
From the discussions of various Israeli intelligence experts, it can be noted. Morning since 6 ; 30, October 7, admitted that there was a blank spot or satellite network disconnection. From within, Israeli and US intelligence accused Iran of being the perpetrator. There are some who accuse Russia. That was a critical hour for Israel, thirteen military barracks and several Israeli police posts were captured by Hamas. In approximately 2 hours, Hamas was able to control territory 40-60 KM long. The second day, the Merkava and IDF flooded the North Gaza border. What a city battle looks like, until now has not been fully covered by the media because of internet censorship by Israel. Practically a city battle, the news will be dominated by the Israeli media.
4. USA and Israel conspiracy (false flag)
The opinion that the Storm Alaqso operation by Hamas was designed by the USA and Israel is very weak. This means that if true, both the USA and Israel are digging their own graves. The doctrine of war outside the territory of Israel and the USA is the doctrine of the Mossad and the Pentagon. Since the 6 Day war, the Yom Kippur war, the four Gaza vs Israel wars have always been outside Israeli territory. Even if it is true, it can be said to be a miscalculation - because fighting in Israeli territory cannot be completely controlled by both Israel and Hamas. One of the keys to the success of Hamas's operations is paragliding which is capable of flying above spy balloons and is safe from detection by the Iron Dome. After Hamas troops entered Israeli surveillance and succeeded in paralyzing the border military barracks, the bulldozers were only able to open Israel's iron fence.
5. Lack of modern equipment
Because Hamas troops are spread out in settlements, Israel cannot immediately bomb like in Gaza. If a bombing occurs, Hamas troops will take shelter in building blocks and settlements with Israeli settlers. Merkava, Iron Dome, David Sling, Mortar, F16, F35 aircraft cannot be used effectively, because the enemy is too close to the Israeli people and the IDF.
6. Expulsion Technique versus Expulsion technique
The massive bombing technique by Israel with the aim of terror and expulsion so that Gaza residents flee to Rafah, could be retaliated by Hamas. Evidence on the 4th day, the residents of Asqalan Israel were forced to leave their homes and evacuate following warnings and rocket attacks.
7. Blockade vs Blockade
If for 16 years, Gaza is successfully blockaded by land, sea and air by Israel, then Hamas can also force Ben Guriom airport to close. Both the IDF, the Israeli settler population and Hamas have no choice but to fight all out on Israeli territory. The IDF and the Israeli people will not leave through the borders of Rafah (Egypt), Jordan, the Golan Heights and South Lebanon, except as refugees or prisoners of war.
8. Cutting off electricity, water, food
If Israel cuts off water, electricity and food from Israel to Gaza, are Hamas and the people of Gaza will die colossally ?. It will take a long time for all Gaza residents to die, they have no other choice but to enter Israeli territory to get food, drink and live in settlements. the luxurious one. Two and a half million Gazans will move to Israeli territory, their own homeland, through tunnels that are still a mystery without the help of the UN and the International world